IT’S NOT THE POLLS, IT’S THE UNDENIABLE FACTS ON THE GROUND

I don’t place much faith in polls.

How can I? If they were really predictive and accurate, Hillary Clinton would have been elected in 2016, Brexit would have failed, Netanyahu would have lost his last two elections, and there would have been a Republican wave in 2022.

Polls are at best a snapshot of how voters in a particular place feel at that time about a particular candidate or issue. It does not even assure that those polled will feel the same way five minutes later, after seeing a political commercial or hearing a news story.

We know polling is inaccurate and subjective, because different polls produce different results on the same issues. That’s why some polls have Kamala ahead in certain states, while others have it tied or have Trump leading in one or two those “swing” states.

If all polling shows the same trend, despite differing numbers, it’s reasonable to conclude the polling detects a trend or shift. In mid July, Trump was ahead of Biden nationally and in most swing states. Now, we have the opposite results. It’s fair to say polls have detected a massive shift to Democrats since Kamala replaced Biden. It’s helped Senate candidates and there’s no reason to doubt a strong top of the ticket helps every rung of the ladder.

However, to assess the state of the race, there is a lot more evidence to examine than polling, which really is not evidence at all. It’s essentially an educated opinion.